Published on March 15, 2024

Contrary to popular belief, having more KPIs doesn’t lead to better decisions; it often creates dangerous blind spots that kill profitability.

  • Most “popular” metrics are lagging indicators (e.g., total views, ROAS) that tell you where you’ve been, not where you’re going.
  • Aggregated data, or the “Averages Fallacy,” actively hides critical failures and opportunities within your customer and product segments.

Recommendation: Shift your focus from monitoring lagging metrics to diagnosing leading indicators. Replace metrics like ROAS with Contribution Margin and use paired metrics to balance efficiency with quality.

For any manager drowning in data, the dashboard is supposed to be a lifeline. It’s a panel of dials and numbers promising clarity and control. We’re told that what gets measured gets managed, so we track everything: likes, views, click-through rates, and a dozen other acronyms. We build elaborate reports and present them in meetings, feeling a sense of accomplishment as the charts trend upward. But what if this entire exercise is a dangerous illusion?

The common wisdom to “be data-driven” often misses a crucial point. It’s not about having more data; it’s about having the right information. The problem is that many of our most cherished Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are little more than vanity metrics. They feel good to track but have a loose, often misleading, connection to the one thing that truly matters: sustainable profitability. These metrics don’t just distract us; they can create systemic blind spots, encouraging behaviors that actively harm the bottom line while creating a false sense of security.

This isn’t about finding a new, magical KPI. It’s about a fundamental shift in mindset from passive monitoring to active diagnosis. The real key to profitability isn’t in the numbers themselves, but in understanding the stories they conceal. It requires questioning the validity of every metric, even the so-called “good” ones, and developing a framework for identifying which KPIs are obsolete and which are true leading indicators of financial health. This guide will provide a strategic framework for dismantling your current dashboard and rebuilding it with metrics that don’t just report on the past but actively guide future profitability.

This article provides a complete roadmap for this strategic shift. We will deconstruct the most common metric fallacies, provide actionable frameworks for building a better dashboard, and explain how to set goals that drive performance without breaking your organization. Follow along to transform your data from a source of noise into your most powerful decision-making tool.

Why Tracking “Likes” and “Views” Is Hiding Your Revenue Problems?

The most seductive KPIs are often the most superficial. Likes, shares, and page views are the candy of the data world: they provide an instant rush but offer zero nutritional value. These are classic vanity metrics, easily manipulated and rarely correlated with actual revenue. A viral post can generate a million views without leading to a single sale, yet it’s celebrated in marketing meetings as a major win. This focus on top-of-funnel noise creates a dangerous disconnect from bottom-line reality. It encourages teams to chase engagement for its own sake, diverting resources from activities that generate profitable customers.

The core issue is that these metrics measure activity, not outcomes. They tell you people are looking, but they don’t tell you if the *right* people are looking, if they value what they see, or if they are taking any action that contributes to the business’s health. In fact, research cited by Forbes suggests that nearly half of all marketing KPIs tracked fall into this vanity category, indicating a widespread problem. This isn’t just inefficient; it’s strategically blind. While the marketing team celebrates a spike in “brand awareness,” the finance department could be watching profit margins shrink.

A powerful example of moving beyond vanity metrics comes from Microsoft’s Xbox division. For years, the company focused on console sales—a number that could only ever go up, providing a comforting but misleading sense of progress. This was a classic vanity metric tied to one-time hardware sales.

Case Study: Microsoft Xbox’s Shift from Hardware Sales to Active Users

In 2016, Microsoft publicly abandoned tracking Xbox console sales as their primary success metric. Xbox’s leadership realized that a running total of consoles sold was not a true reflection of the ecosystem’s health. Instead, they shifted focus to monthly active users (MAU). This KPI measures how many people are consciously choosing to engage with Xbox’s content, games, and services each month. This shift aligned their measurement directly with their business model, which was moving from one-time hardware sales to more lucrative, recurring revenue from subscriptions and services like Game Pass. MAU became a true leading indicator of customer value and long-term profitability, not just a historical sales figure.

This strategic pivot highlights the difference between a lagging indicator (total consoles sold) and a leading one (active users). The former looks backward at past transactions, while the latter provides insight into future revenue potential. Ignoring revenue problems by focusing on “likes” is like a doctor measuring a patient’s social media popularity instead of their vital signs. It’s a distraction from the real diagnosis that needs to be made.

How to Build a Leading Indicator Dashboard in Excel or PowerBI?

Abandoning vanity metrics is only the first step. The next is to replace them with a dashboard of leading indicators—metrics that don’t just report history but help predict the future. A leading indicator is a measurable factor that changes *before* the company’s financial results follow. For example, while monthly recurring revenue (MRR) is a lagging indicator, metrics like “free trial to paid conversion rate” or “number of product demos booked” are leading indicators because they predict future MRR.

The goal of a leading indicator dashboard is to create an early warning system. It should empower teams to make proactive adjustments, not reactive repairs. This requires a shift from asking “How did we do?” to “Where are we headed?” Building such a dashboard in a tool like Power BI or even a well-structured Excel spreadsheet is not primarily a technical challenge; it’s a strategic one. It begins with deconstructing your ultimate goal (e.g., profitability) into its core drivers. This process, often visualized as a KPI tree, helps identify the operational levers that directly influence the financial outcome.

Visual representation of a KPI tree showing profit drivers from revenue down to operational metrics

As the visualization suggests, profitability isn’t a single metric but the result of a hierarchy of interconnected drivers. A leading indicator dashboard focuses on the “roots” and “trunk” of this tree—the operational metrics that your team can directly influence, such as feature adoption rates or customer onboarding completion times—rather than just staring at the “leaves” of final revenue. The key is to find the handful of metrics that have the highest correlation with your desired future state.

Creating this dashboard requires discipline. It involves gathering clean data, defining the relationships between different data tables, and using formulas (like DAX in Power BI) to calculate the custom metrics that truly matter. It’s about choosing the right visualization—a gauge for progress toward a target, a card for a single critical number, or a line chart for a trend—to tell a clear, unambiguous story.

Action Plan: Creating a Leading Indicator Dashboard in Power BI

  1. Import and Clean Data: Gather scrubbed data from your primary sources (e.g., CRM, financial software, analytics tools). Remove duplicates, fill gaps, and standardize formats to ensure data integrity from the start.
  2. Define Relationships: Use Power BI’s modeling features to connect your data tables logically. For example, link your customer data table to your sales data table using a common “CustomerID” field. This is crucial for cross-functional analysis.
  3. Create DAX Measures for Leading Indicators: Go beyond default fields. Use DAX (Data Analysis Expressions) formulas to calculate predictive metrics. Examples include “Sales Qualified Lead (SQL) to Customer Conversion Rate” or “Average Time to First Value” for new users.
  4. Select Appropriate Visuals: Match the visual to the metric’s purpose. Use a KPI visual to track performance against a target, a gauge to show current status within a range, and simple cards for your most critical, at-a-glance numbers.
  5. Configure Value Settings: For each visual, define the primary metric (the indicator), the target goal, and the trend axis (e.g., time). This contextualizes the number, showing not just what it is, but whether it’s good or bad and in which direction it’s moving.

Revenue vs. Retention: Which KPI Matters More for SaaS Growth?

In the world of Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), the debate between prioritizing new revenue acquisition versus customer retention is a constant strategic battle. Both are crucial, but their relative importance changes dramatically based on a company’s stage of growth. Focusing on the wrong one at the wrong time can be a fatal mistake. A startup chasing enterprise-level revenue before achieving product-market fit will burn through cash, while a mature company ignoring retention is effectively trying to fill a leaky bucket.

The key is to understand that these are not mutually exclusive goals but a balancing act. For early-stage companies, the primary focus is proving that the product solves a real problem for a specific market. Here, metrics around product-market fit and user engagement are paramount. Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) is a critical health metric to monitor, ensuring the cost to acquire a new user isn’t unsustainable. At this stage, high revenue from a few customers can be a false signal if the broader user base is disengaged or churning quickly.

As a company enters the growth stage, the focus shifts to scaling efficiently. The balance between CAC and Net Dollar Retention (NDR) becomes the central challenge. NDR, which measures the change in recurring revenue from your existing customers over time (including upsells, downgrades, and churn), becomes a powerful indicator of long-term health. A high NDR (over 100%) means your existing customer base is a source of growth in itself. In a mature market, retention, as measured by NDR and Customer Lifetime Value (LTV), becomes the undisputed king. It is far more profitable to expand revenue from happy existing customers than to constantly acquire new ones. Yet, surprisingly, a Statista survey revealed that less than half of surveyed marketers include customer lifetime value among their KPIs, highlighting a massive blind spot.

The following table illustrates how KPI priorities should evolve, moving from validation to scaling and finally to optimization and profitability.

SaaS Growth Stage KPI Priority Matrix
Growth Stage Primary KPI Focus Secondary Metrics Key Actions
Early-Stage Product-Market Fit & CAC User engagement, Feature adoption Iterate quickly, minimize burn rate
Growth-Stage Balance of CAC & NDR MRR growth, Churn rate Scale efficient channels, optimize onboarding
Mature-Stage Net Dollar Retention (NDR) LTV:CAC ratio, Contribution margin Focus on expansion revenue, maximize profitability

Ultimately, the question isn’t “revenue or retention?” but “what is the most profitable focus for our current stage?” For most established businesses, the answer points overwhelmingly toward retention. A focus on NDR and LTV shifts the entire organization’s mindset from one-time transactions to long-term relationships, which is the foundation of sustainable profitability.

The Averages Fallacy: How Aggregated Data Masks Critical Failures

One of the most dangerous and widespread errors in data analysis is the “Averages Fallacy.” This is the misguided reliance on aggregated metrics—like average revenue per user, average session duration, or average conversion rate—to judge performance. While simple and easy to report, averages are masters of disguise. They smooth out the peaks and valleys in your data, creating a comforting but completely misleading picture of reality. They can make a business look healthy on the surface while critical segments are failing disastrously.

The problem is that an average tells you nothing about the distribution of the data. Are all your customers behaving similarly, or do you have a small group of hyper-profitable power users and a vast sea of unprofitable, low-engagement users? Your “average” customer likely doesn’t exist. This is perfectly captured by a common industry analogy, which highlights the absurdity of relying on aggregated data.

The CEO with one foot in the oven and one in the freezer is, on average, perfectly comfortable.

– Industry Analogy, Common business wisdom on the danger of averages

This isn’t just a clever saying; it’s a critical business lesson. Relying on an “average” customer satisfaction score of 4 out of 5 is useless if it’s composed of 50% of customers rating you a 5 and 50% rating you a 3. The average hides a story of polarization: you have passionate fans and a large, vulnerable group of detractors at risk of churning. To find the truth, you must ruthlessly segment your data. Look at metrics by:

  • Customer Cohort: How do users who signed up in January behave compared to those from June?
  • Geographic Region: Is your “average” conversion rate being propped up by one high-performing country while others are failing?
  • Product Line: Is the high margin on one product masking the losses on another?
  • Marketing Channel: Does “average” CAC hide the fact that one channel is wildly profitable and another is a cash bonfire?

For example, a company might set an ambitious goal to increase its net profit margin from 32% to 40% by year-end. An aggregated view might show slow progress. But a segmented view could reveal that new customers have a profit margin of only 15%, while repeat customers from a specific cohort have a margin of 55%. The actionable insight isn’t “try harder”; it’s “focus marketing spend on reactivating high-margin cohorts and fix the onboarding for new, unprofitable customers.” The average hides this diagnosis, but segmentation reveals it.

When to Kill a KPI: Signs Your Metrics Are Obsolete

In the relentless pursuit of new data, organizations often suffer from “metric inertia”—the tendency to keep tracking a KPI long after it has lost its relevance or, worse, become counterproductive. Dashboards become cluttered with these zombie metrics, creating noise and distracting from what truly matters. Knowing when and how to “kill” a KPI is just as important as knowing which new ones to adopt. It’s a vital act of strategic hygiene.

A KPI becomes obsolete for several reasons. The most common is a strategic shift. A metric designed to measure success for an old business model is useless after a pivot. For instance, a retail company that moves from a physical-first to an online-first model should stop obsessing over “foot traffic per store” and focus instead on “e-commerce conversion rate” and “LTV:CAC ratio.” Continuing to track the old metric wastes time and encourages the wrong focus.

Another clear sign of obsolescence is when a metric has been “gamed” to the point of meaninglessness. If a sales team is goaled on “number of demos booked,” they might start booking low-quality demos just to hit their target, wasting the time of account executives and leading to poor sales outcomes. The KPI has created a perverse incentive. The metric is no longer a proxy for success; it has become the goal itself, detached from any real business value. The solution is to replace it with a metric that is harder to game, such as “revenue from new demos.”

Vintage industrial gauges and dials covered in dust representing obsolete metrics

A KPI should also be on the chopping block if it no longer triggers a specific action or decision. If a team reviews a metric every week and their only response is “that’s interesting” before moving on, that metric is dead weight. A useful KPI must be actionable. If it drops, the team should know exactly what levers to pull to try and fix it. If it doesn’t inspire action, it’s just data trivia. Regularly performing a “KPI autopsy” is crucial to keep your dashboard clean, focused, and relevant.

Action Plan: Your KPI Autopsy Checklist

  1. The Action Trigger: Does this KPI still trigger a specific action or decision when it changes? If not, why is it being tracked?
  2. Strategic Alignment: Has the underlying business strategy it was meant to measure changed? Does it still reflect our current top priorities?
  3. The “Gaming” Test: Has this KPI been “gamed” to the point of being meaningless? Are teams hitting the target without driving the intended business outcome?
  4. The Influence Test: When was the last time this metric significantly influenced a strategic decision or a change in tactics? If it’s been more than a quarter, its relevance is questionable.
  5. The Clarity Check: Can team members clearly and concisely explain how this KPI connects to a core business outcome like profit or customer value? If they can’t, it’s a vanity metric in disguise.

Why ROAS Is a Liar: The Case for Tracking Contribution Margin

For decades, Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) has been the gold standard for measuring advertising effectiveness. The formula is simple: for every dollar you spend on ads, how many dollars of revenue do you get back? It’s easy to calculate and feels direct. However, ROAS is one of the most dangerously misleading KPIs in modern business. It’s a liar because it completely ignores the two most important factors: profit margin and total business costs. A high ROAS can easily mask an unprofitable campaign.

Imagine an e-commerce business selling two products: a low-margin dog food with a 10% profit margin and a high-margin dog cage with a 60% profit margin. A campaign promoting the dog food might generate a 10x ROAS, while a campaign for the cages only generates a 4x ROAS. On paper, the dog food campaign looks like a massive success. But the high revenue is an illusion of profitability. The 10x ROAS on a 10% margin product is barely breaking even, while the “lower” 4x ROAS on the 60% margin product is generating significant actual profit for the business.

The E-commerce ROAS Trap

An e-commerce business selling both low-margin pet food and high-margin animal cages can be easily misled if optimizing solely for ROAS. By focusing on the high-revenue, low-margin products that produce an impressive ROAS figure, the business might scale up advertising for the pet food. This diverts budget and attention away from the more profitable opportunities with the animal cages. The company celebrates its high ROAS while its overall profitability stagnates or even declines. This misalignment is a classic example of a “good” KPI leading to bad business decisions.

The solution is to demote ROAS from a primary KPI to a secondary diagnostic metric and elevate a true profitability metric in its place: Contribution Margin. Contribution margin is the revenue from a sale minus all the variable costs associated with that sale (including the cost of goods sold and the ad spend). This number tells you the actual dollar amount that each sale “contributes” to covering your fixed costs (like salaries and rent) and generating profit.

A more holistic alternative to ROAS for top-level analysis is the Marketing Efficiency Ratio (MER), sometimes called Blended ROAS. As defined by marketing experts, the Marketing Efficiency Ratio provides a holistic view by measuring Total Revenue ÷ Total Marketing Spend. While still revenue-based, MER avoids the channel-specific attribution fallacies of ROAS and gives a better top-line sense of marketing’s overall impact. However, for true campaign-level decision-making, nothing beats contribution margin. Shifting your focus from “How much revenue did I get?” (ROAS) to “How much profit did I generate?” (Contribution Margin) is the ultimate move from a vanity mindset to a profitability-driven strategy.

OKRs or KPIs: Which Framework Actually Drives Execution Speed?

In the quest for performance, managers are often presented with a false choice between two popular frameworks: Objectives and Key Results (OKRs) and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). The debate over which is “better” misses the point entirely. They are not competing methodologies; they are complementary tools designed for different purposes. Understanding their distinct roles is critical for driving execution speed without losing sight of overall business health.

KPIs are best thought of as the dials and gauges on your business’s dashboard. They are ongoing health metrics that monitor the vital signs of your operations. A KPI like “Customer Churn Rate” or “Server Uptime” doesn’t represent a specific goal to change; it represents a standard to be maintained. If a KPI drops into the red, it’s an alarm bell that signals a problem in a core business function that needs attention. They are fundamentally about monitoring and maintaining stability.

OKRs, on the other hand, are a goal-setting framework designed for change and acceleration. They are your GPS. You don’t plug your car’s oil pressure into the GPS; you plug in a destination. An OKR consists of an ambitious, qualitative Objective (the destination) and a set of 2-4 quantitative Key Results (the measurable milestones that tell you if you’re on track). OKRs are time-bound, typically set quarterly, and are designed to create intense focus on a few critical priorities that will move the business forward. A business strategy expert often uses a clear analogy to distinguish them.

KPIs are the dials on your car’s dashboard (speed, engine temp) that monitor overall health. OKRs are the specific destination you plug into the GPS for a single journey.

– Business Strategy Expert, Framework comparison analogy

True execution speed comes from using these two frameworks in tandem. You use OKRs to rally the team around an ambitious, short-term goal, like “Increase enterprise trial-to-paid conversion rate from 15% to 25%.” This creates focus and urgency. Meanwhile, your dashboard of KPIs (like “Customer Support Response Time” or “Website Load Speed”) runs in the background. This ensures that in your sprint toward the OKR destination, you don’t inadvertently break a fundamental part of the business. You can’t sacrifice support quality just to hit a sales goal. The KPIs act as guardrails, allowing you to pursue ambitious goals safely.

Action Plan: Combining OKRs and KPIs for Maximum Impact

  1. Set Ambitious OKRs: Use OKRs to create intense, short-term focus on improving 1-2 critical Key Results that will significantly advance the business.
  2. Deploy KPIs as Health Metrics: Use a dashboard of KPIs to continuously monitor business-as-usual fundamentals. These are your “do no harm” metrics.
  3. Implement Weekly OKR Check-ins: OKRs demand rapid feedback loops. Weekly check-ins allow teams to assess progress, identify roadblocks, and adjust tactics quickly.
  4. Review KPIs Monthly: KPIs require less frequent, but still regular, review. This ensures your aggressive pursuit of an OKR isn’t causing unintended negative consequences elsewhere.
  5. Measure “Execution Velocity”: As a meta-KPI, track the achievement rate of your OKRs over time. This measures your organization’s ability to set and hit ambitious goals, a key indicator of execution capability.

Key Takeaways

  • Ditch vanity metrics like “views” and “ROAS” for leading indicators like “contribution margin” that are directly tied to profit.
  • Beware the Averages Fallacy; aggregated data hides the truth. Segment your metrics by cohort, channel, and product to find actionable insights.
  • Use paired metrics (e.g., “tickets closed” vs. “customer satisfaction”) to balance efficiency goals with quality standards and prevent team burnout.

How to Set Operational Goals That Don’t Break Your Workforce?

The pressure to improve efficiency can lead managers to set operational goals that, while seemingly logical, have devastating unintended consequences. A singular focus on an output metric like “tickets closed per day” or “sales calls made” inevitably leads to burnout, a drop in quality, and employee churn. When people are incentivized to optimize for a single number, they will find the shortest path to that number, even if it means sacrificing the quality of their work and their own well-being. This is a perfect example of Goodhart’s Law: “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.”

A healthy, profitable organization understands that sustainable performance is about balance, not brute force. The solution is to implement a framework of paired metrics. This involves never setting an efficiency or volume goal without pairing it with a corresponding quality or outcome counter-metric. The two metrics create a natural tension that forces a more holistic and sustainable approach to performance. For instance, if you want to increase the speed of your customer support team, you don’t just target “tickets closed per hour.” You pair it with “Customer Satisfaction Score (CSAT).” Now, the team can’t simply rush through tickets to hit a volume target; they must do so while maintaining a high level of quality.

Balanced scales representing equilibrium between productivity metrics and employee wellbeing

This approach transforms the nature of goal-setting from a single-minded push for more to a strategic pursuit of better. It respects the complexity of real-world work and acknowledges that speed without quality is worthless, and activity without profitable outcomes is just busywork. Furthermore, this balanced approach has a direct impact on profitability by reducing employee turnover. Studies have shown that companies maintaining an employee churn rate below 10% often exhibit stronger and more consistent financial performance, as they retain valuable institutional knowledge and avoid the high costs of recruitment and training.

The table below provides examples of how to apply the paired metrics framework across different business functions to drive performance that is both effective and sustainable.

The Paired Metrics Framework for Sustainable Operations
Efficiency Metric Quality Counter-Metric Purpose
Tickets Closed per Day Customer Satisfaction Score Prevents quality sacrifice for speed
Sales Calls Made Contribution Margin from New Sales Focuses on profitable outputs vs. just activity
Production Units per Hour Defect Rate Balances manufacturing speed with quality standards
Code Lines Written Bug Density per Release Ensures a sustainable and quality-focused development pace

By implementing this framework, you can create a system that encourages smart work, not just hard work. It is the key to setting ambitious goals that motivate your teams without leading to burnout.

The journey away from vanity metrics toward true profitability diagnosis is a continuous process of questioning, refining, and focusing. The next logical step is to begin your own KPI autopsy. Use the frameworks in this guide to critically evaluate your current dashboard and start building one that empowers your team to make decisions that truly matter.

Written by Sarah Lin, Fractional CFO and Chartered Accountant (CPA) specializing in financial health, cash flow management, and forensic auditing. 12 years helping SMEs and mid-caps avoid insolvency.